Citi lowered its price target on Cummins (NYSE:CMI) from $430 to $360, maintaining a Buy rating despite near-term headwinds in the commercial vehicle market. As a result, shares fell around 2% intra-day today.
Citi cited a weaker freight environment and recent cuts to North American truck production forecasts from ACT Research as key factors behind the revised estimates. Dealers are reportedly experiencing “order paralysis” among fleet buyers, who are holding back on new purchases amid uncertainty around Trump-era tariffs and potential revisions to EPA 2027 emissions regulations.
While Citi’s updated 2025 estimates for Cummins now fall toward the lower end of the company’s own guidance, the firm believes CMI is better positioned than peers to navigate the cyclical softness. Unlike others in the space, Cummins benefits from broad geographic reach, a diversified product portfolio, and strong pricing stability.
Among Citi’s coverage of the commercial vehicle sector, Cummins stands out as the only stock with a Buy rating, supported by the company’s ability to withstand short-term pressure while maintaining long-term earnings strength.