Citi analysts initiated coverage on Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) with a Neutral rating and a price target of $190 on the stock. The assessment reflects a balance between the company’s recent launches and ongoing challenges in its legacy franchises.
Biogen’s core revenue drivers, including its multiple sclerosis (MS) portfolio, Spinraza for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA), and anti-CD20 royalties, have faced prolonged declines. Over the past five years, these segments reported compound annual growth rate (CAGR) declines of -12%, -3%, and -2%, respectively. To counter this erosion, Biogen has focused on high-risk, high-reward therapeutic areas, including Alzheimer’s disease, ALS, lupus, stroke, and Parkinson’s disease. This strategy has yielded some notable successes, including the Alzheimer’s treatment Leqembi, as well as Skyclarys for Friedreich’s ataxia and Zurzuvae for postpartum depression.
Despite these launches, Biogen’s pipeline remains riskier compared to its Big Biotech peers, though it also offers potential upside. Key data expected within the next two years includes results from BIIB080 in Alzheimer’s, BIIB091 in MS, and BIIB122 in Parkinson’s. While these programs could provide long-term growth opportunities, they add considerable clinical risk.
Near-term projections reflect a mixed outlook. Citi anticipates average revenue declines of -2% and modest non-GAAP EPS growth of +2% from 2024 to 2026, underperforming peer averages of 0% and +4%, respectively.