Bumble (NASDAQ:BMBL) saw its shares plummet over 27% intra-day today after issuing a disappointing first-quarter revenue forecast and warning of declining margins and a shrinking user base, overshadowing a slight earnings beat for the previous quarter.
For Q1 2025, Bumble expects revenue between $242 million and $248 million, falling well short of analyst estimates of $257.2 million. Additionally, the company anticipates weaker profitability, projecting adjusted EBITDA between $60 million and $63 million, implying a roughly 25% margin—a 250 basis point decline year-over-year and about 11% below Wall Street forecasts. Management attributed the margin contraction to higher investments in product development.
In Q4, revenue came in at $261.6 million, slightly exceeding analyst expectations of $260.03 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $72.5 million, representing 27.7% of revenue, compared to $73.7 million (26.9%) in the prior year.
However, the biggest concern for investors was Bumble’s declining user base. The platform lost approximately 60,000 paying users in Q4, and management warned of an even steeper drop of 100,000 to 120,000 in Q1 2025—far worse than Wall Street’s projection of a 30,000-user decline.
With slowing user growth, weaker revenue guidance, and increasing costs, Bumble faces mounting pressure to reverse its declining engagement trends and restore investor confidence in its growth trajectory.