Introduction
Bank of America (BofA) has spotlighted Shell, Equinor, and TotalEnergies as top picks among European oil majors in its latest report. According to the firm’s analysis, these companies are currently mispriced relative to their earnings momentum and free cash flow generation. Despite broader market headwinds—including higher tariffs, a potential global trade slowdown, and weaker U.S. and European economic growth—BofA believes that these companies’ strong balance sheets and low breakeven oil prices present a compelling investment opportunity.
Key Highlights
Mispricing in Big Oil:
BofA notes that European oil majors have decoupled from earnings momentum, with Brent crude down 6% YTD but their share prices up roughly 10%.
Shell stands out with a breakeven oil price of $65 per barrel versus a sector average above $90 per barrel.
Earnings and Cash Flow Concerns:
The bank warns of downside risk to consensus expectations for 1Q25 cash flows, highlighting weak free cash flow generation that may require asset disposals to avoid additional net debt.
Valuation Gaps:
Shell, TotalEnergies, and Equinor offer the highest free cash flow yields for FY25—averaging around 5%—underscoring their relative valuation attractiveness.
Growth Prospects for Equinor:
Equinor has received significant consensus upgrades this year and is expected to outperform both 1Q25 and full-year earnings, driven by robust natural gas price assumptions (around $13/mbtu TTF).
In-Depth Analysis
Valuation and Balance Sheet Strength
BofA’s analysis emphasizes that despite market headwinds, European oil majors remain attractive due to their strong balance sheets and low breakeven prices. For instance, Shell’s breakeven at $65 per barrel provides a clear edge over its peers, which generally require oil prices above $90 to break even. This valuation gap, combined with robust free cash flow yields, signals a relative mispricing that investors can exploit.
Earnings Growth and Cash Flow Concerns
The report also highlights potential risks in the sector, including weak free cash flow that could force companies to dispose of non-core assets to manage net debt levels. BofA projects a downside risk to 1Q25 cash flows, reflecting the pressures of an uncertain global economic environment exacerbated by increased tariffs and subdued growth forecasts.
Relative Performance Amid Market Uncertainty
While the broader market has been under pressure, European energy equities have outperformed key benchmarks like the MSCI Developed World Index and even Brent crude, driven by a recovery in the Euro Stoxx 50. This divergence is largely attributed to investors’ growing preference for companies with resilience and robust financial metrics over those solely focused on earnings momentum.
Real-Time Data Resources
For investors looking to delve deeper into the financial metrics and growth trends of European oil majors, consider these key data resources:
Ratios (TTM) APIUse this API to access real-time valuation ratios and compare free cash flow yields across companies like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Equinor.
Financial Growth APIMonitor earnings growth trends and revenue forecasts to better understand the underlying performance drivers within the European energy sector.
Conclusion
BofA’s latest outlook presents a compelling case for investing in European oil majors. With Shell, Equinor, and TotalEnergies offering attractive free cash flow yields and strong balance sheets despite global trade uncertainties and subdued earnings growth forecasts, these stocks appear mispriced relative to market sentiment. As the industry navigates the challenges of higher tariffs and economic headwinds, investors may find value in these resilient companies.
