Barclays analysts reaffirmed a $325 price target and Equalweight rating on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), cautioning that the electric vehicle maker’s first-quarter deliveries are likely to come in well below market expectations.
After analyzing data from January and February and early trends from March, Barclays projects Q1 deliveries of approximately 350,000 units—significantly under the consensus estimate of 400,000 units and lower than the firm’s prior forecast issued after Tesla’s Q4 earnings.
This updated estimate reflects a roughly 30% decline from the previous quarter and a 10% drop year-over-year. According to Barclays, many investors may already be bracing for these lower figures, given sluggish delivery data throughout the quarter.
The forecast also includes an expected 20,000-unit drawdown in inventory, largely attributed to reduced China-based production for exports and lower output globally during the ramp-up of the Model Y Juniper refresh. As a result, Barclays anticipates Tesla’s global inventory will land between 70,000 and 80,000 units at the end of Q1.