PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) received a downgrade from Overweight to Equalweight by Barclays analysts, who lowered the price target to $156 from $168, citing near-term headwinds in the company’s Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) division.
As the market increasingly views PepsiCo as more of a U.S. food company, investor sentiment is closely tied to FLNA’s volume recovery. Barclays anticipates that it may take several more quarters before trends stabilize, particularly amid a more uncertain macroeconomic environment.
Despite the short-term struggles, the firm still sees FLNA capable of achieving sustainable volume growth of approximately 1.5% and organic sales growth (OSG) of around 3% over the long run. Beyond this division’s recovery, Barclays believes PepsiCo’s sales growth of 4-6% and profit growth of 7-9% remains achievable over the long term—though likely at the lower end of that range.
PepsiCo’s current valuation in the high-teens multiple reflects a balanced risk-reward outlook, according to Barclays. While FLNA’s near-term softness adds caution, the company’s strong international business and productivity initiatives help mitigate downside risk, supporting a baseline of 4% sales growth and 7% EPS growth in the long run.