Bernstein analysts believe that 2025 and 2026 will be pivotal years for the autonomous vehicle (AV) industry, as it transitions from proof of concept to commercial viability in the U.S.
The Future of AVs and Rideshare Industry Implications
Market Structure Debate: The AV market could either remain highly consolidated or become more competitive, which would impact rideshare companies like Uber (NYSE: UBER) and Lyft (NASDAQ: LYFT).
Uber & Lyft at Risk?:
A winner-takes-most AV market could erode Uber and Lyft’s pricing power by shifting control to a few dominant AV providers.
However, a diverse set of AV players could sustain competition and prevent excessive consolidation.
Who Are the Key AV Players?
Waymo: Currently the dominant player in U.S. robotaxi services.
Zoox & Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA): Expected to launch commercial services in 2024-2025.
Smaller Players (Avride & May Mobility): These startups are working toward deployment and could form strategic partnerships with Uber and Lyft.
Cruise’s Collapse: Bernstein highlights Cruise’s failure as a reminder that disruptive technology remains unpredictable.
Investment Considerations & Stock Market Impact
New Partnerships: Bernstein emphasizes that Uber & Lyft forming partnerships with emerging AV players could be key catalysts for their stock performance.
Stock Perspective: If Avride and May Mobility successfully launch services on Uber and Lyft by 2025, it would provide proof of concept for long-term investors.
Tracking the AV Market & Rideshare Stocks
To stay ahead of these developments, investors can leverage:
Sector Historical APIAnalyze how AV and rideshare sectors are evolving over time.
Company Rating APITrack analyst ratings for Uber, Lyft, Tesla, and AV companies as competition ramps up.
Conclusion
The next two years could reshape the autonomous vehicle landscape, impacting rideshare business models. While Waymo leads the AV race, the emergence of new players like Tesla, Zoox, and startups like Avride and May Mobility could influence competition, regulation, and investor sentiment.
