Carlos Alcaraz is still favored to repeat as the men’s champion at Wimbledon, but the Spaniard’s biggest hurdles continue to close the gap.
Alcaraz, who has needed 13 sets to get through his past three matches, is the +105 favorite at BetMGM to win the men’s title.
He first must get through Russia’s Daniil Medvedev, who is the +250 underdog ahead of their semifinal match on Friday. A Medvedev upset would be a big win for the book with Alcaraz having been backed by 43.3 percent of all money wagered on the men’s title.
That’s well ahead of Novak Djokovic, with the 24-time major champion backed by 21.3 percent. However, the 37-year-old Serbian has received some help en route to his record-tying 13th semifinal appearance at Wimbledon.
Djokovic, who is playing following knee surgery just last month, received a quarterfinal walkover when Australia’s Alex de Minaur withdrew due to a hip injury on Wednesday. That set up a semifinal date against No. 25 seed Lorenzo Musetti.
Djokovic is a massive -750 favorite to dispatch Musetti, and his odds of winning the men’s title have shortened to +125. That’s followed by Medvedev at +600 and Musetti at +1600.
Musetti, 22, is just the fourth Italian man to reach the semifinals at the All England Club, joining Jannik Sinner (2023), Matteo Berrettini (2021) and Nicola Pietrangeli (1960). Musetti has faced Djokovic twice previously on the Grand Slam stage, pushing the Serbian to five sets twice before falling.
“I think I analyzed that match really well and the key moments where I could do better,” Musetti said. “I put myself in that position. I think in the past weeks, starting from Stuttgart (where Musetti reached the semifinals), I started to feel more continuous on that, on the attitude.”
Medvedev also did Alcaraz and Djokovic favors by upsetting the No. 1-ranked Sinner in five sets.
“(Medvedev) is a really great player,” Alcaraz said. “The same semifinal as last year and hopefully I’m going to get the same result. He just beat Jannik Sinner, the best player right now, so I know he is in really good shape.
“I have to play my best. I have to believe in myself and try to keep going if I want to beat him. It is going to be a difficult one, but I’m going to enjoy it.”
Barring an upset, Alcaraz and Djokovic are on a crash course to meet in the finals again.
Alcaraz defeated Djokovic in an epic five-set final last year, 1-6, 7-6 (6), 6-1, 3-6, 6-4, in a match that lasted nearly five hours.
–Field Level Media
