TOP Ships, Inc. (NASDAQ:TOPS) has 6 institutional investors and shareholders that have filed 13D/G or 13F forms with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). These institutions hold a total of 16,876,996 shares. Largest shareholders include Sovereign Holdings Inc., Crede Cg Iii, Ltd., Kcg Holdings, Inc., Morgan Stanley, UBS Group AG, Wells Fargo and IFP Advisors, Inc.
TOPS share prices have been manipulated down. It doesn’t matter who you think is behind it, the fact is that illegal naked short sales have made up around half the transactions every day for many months.
Shipping rates went up.
Sector started recovering
Fleet got upgraded
Shareholder equity nearly doubled YTY
Contracts got upgrades and extended
The market responded favorably each time and each time, naked short sales pulled the share price back down. So why does it matter whether natural market forces or illegal short campaigns drive the price?
Aside from free market issues, fairness and legality, it is important to know that there comes a point where the value becomes so obvious that it cannot be held back.
The Bear argument is simply that the price always go down so the company must be a scam. It’s like the cop giving you a ticket for a broken headlight after walking up and breaking it with his billy club.
The Crede financing deal was used to rebuild the fleet and value has increased significantly in the same time excessive naked short sales drive share prices down beyond all reason.
This all ends as soon as the end of dilution is announced.
Bear case then is “they’ll do it again because they are crooks”, word for word. You will hear that. This is highly unlikely. TOPS has plenty of cash now, revolving credit. Additionally, it must be considered that another offering would trigger a crash. This to zero probably. It won’t happen. It is too clear what would happen.
The wildcard here is that DRYS announced a buyback last night with extra cash. TOPS is now cash laden and the same move on top of the end of dilution would mean a squeeze of biblical proportions could take place.
Re-inflation of much of the lost market cap is inevitable after the filing that ends the dilution. This can occur any time and consensus is this month. Many call for tomorrow. I think before the 15th of February.
Until then, this stock may very well continue a slow bleed. But don’t count on that because the notice could occur any time and covering will start, helping boost volume.
We predicts a spike of $10-$100 within the month of February 2018.
TOP SHIPS Inc., formerly known as TOP Tankers Inc., is an international provider of worldwide seaborne crude oil and petroleum products and of dry bulk transportation services. Upon delivery of one tanker to its new owners, the Company will operate a fleet of 19 tankers, consisting of 11 double-hull Suezmax tankers and 8 double-hull Handymax tankers, with a total carrying capacity of approximately 2.0 million dwt, of which 78% are sister ships, and two dry bulk vessels.